THE SUBSTITUTE MAY NOT BE THE INTERESTING PLAYER
Observation
A substitution is often evaluated through what the incoming player does directly. The more interesting effect may be what the opponent starts doing differently.
Try Looking At
Track the defenders and midfielders dealing with the new player.
Counterpoint
The team may have changed its behaviour for other reasons at exactly the same moment.
Doesn't Fit
If similar changes occur after almost every energetic substitution, there may be nothing distinctive about the proposed State effect.
Question
Is there a kind of substitute whose value is primarily the condition they help create around themselves?